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Economic Forecast
(Jan 2012) |
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Rate of growth %
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BASE SCENARIO
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||||||
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011est
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2012 est
|
||
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Output
|
1.3
|
-6.1
|
5.4
|
3.9
|
2.0
|
|
|
Inflation Dec %
|
6.5
|
3.6
|
4.4
|
3.8
|
4.4
|
|
|
Exchange Rate (Ps:$)
|
13.8
|
13.1
|
12.3
|
13.9
|
13.5
|
|
|
Cete Interest % Dec
|
8.25
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
|
|
Source: Ecanal
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Export growth should continue to weaken during 2012. Depending on the depth of the euro zone recession, we may have to revise a forecast for positive growth in 2012 later on. For GDP growth we expect 2.0% for the year; 2.7% in the first semester and 1.3% in the second. The latter includes some effect from the cycle following the election, when the government becomes de facto paralyzed. We have also reconsidered that the outlook for 2013 must necessarily be of low growth, given the protracted nature of the crisis in Europe. We expect the US to continue deleveraging in at least the private sectors. The weaker peso will help to reduce the fall in activity, however, although not in a major way, given the depressed external market. The climate for business is bad and we expect it to continue bad, but the new government at the end of 2012 will have an opportunity to change expectations.