In 2012 monetary policy will most likely maintain the funding rate of the Bank at 4.5%. This will be much higher then US Fed rates, but not enough to prevent capital flight to the safe haven of the dollar. With inflation exceeding 4%, there is little prospects for a reduction in interest.
The main priority for the government on fiscal policy is to maintain the fiscal deficit under control at a slightly lower level than last year. Yet the timing and the depth of the slowdown, in a scenario of high euro zone risks, may lead the government to implement some measures in an attempt to cushion the fall in activity. We give to this possibility, however, no more than a 10% probability.