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MISSION

Ecanal conducts economic research and analysis of economic trends in Mexico's risks and opportunities, and of government policy from the perspective of the private sector with a normative approach. It offers business a structured view of key economic issues and forecasts with a straightforward, direct language, as an aid to company planning.

WHERE IS THE ECONOMY? (23 May 2014)

Higher global growth this year than in 2013 is not materializing, as we expected, except in the euro zone and in the US. The improvement in the euro zone is cyclical, however, and too weak for us to expect the recovery to be significant or lasting. This is because these economies must maintain fiscal austerity, while their exchange rate is too strong to permit a lasting recovery. The periphery, in addition, must fulfill targets of IMF programs in the midst of high unemployment. The US has an improved fiscal outlook, as the deficit is heading down, but is facing a fall in housing, as the expectation of rising interest rates has prevailed until very recently. And China is slowign down sharply, as we have expected.