Ecanal conducts economic research and analysis of economic trends in Mexico's risks and opportunities, and of government policy from the perspective of the private sector with a normative approach. It offers business a structured view of key economic issues and forecasts with a straightforward, direct language, as an aid to company planning.
Despite massive and continued monetary stimulation by the central banks of Japan and the euro zone, growth in both economies remains sluggish. And in 2016 China has become another case of slowing growth, leading its government to increase fiscal and monetary stimulus. Among large advanced economies, the US is the only one with a clear growth outlook for 2016. We expect this growth, however, to be closer to 2% than 2.7% as the analysts' consensus expects. We share their view, however, that prices and wages will continue up moderately and that the Fed will increase interest rates during all of this year. Weakness in global demand and a strong dollar, however, would reduce its potential and may cause longer pauses for rate increases beyond 2016 or even a halt to rate increases.