Ecanal conducts economic research and analysis of economic trends in Mexico's risks and opportunities, and of government policy from the perspective of the private sector with a normative approach. It offers business a structured view of key economic issues and forecasts with a straightforward, direct language, as an aid to company planning.
We expect global growth in 2015 to be weaker than in 2014, even taking into account that the US keeps growing and that the euro zone shows a slight spurt, as credit remains cheap. Five-year sovereign bonds of Germany and Scandinavian countries are now trading at a negative yield and Finland and Germany issued bonds with negative rates. This is largely because of quantitative easing by the ECB for euro 60 bn per month indefinitely, but also because of deflation threats. China's growth has weakened as we expected and its central bank has reduced interest rates followed by reductions in other Asian countreies. Latin American growth will be weak, with Brazil and Argentina troubled by macro imbalances and Mexico returning to its historically low rate of 2% to 2.5%, after failing to deliver rates expected by the international community of 4% or 5%.