Ecanal conducts economic research and analysis of economic trends in Mexico's risks and opportunities, and of government policy from the perspective of the private sector with a normative approach. It offers business a structured view of key economic issues and forecasts with a straightforward, direct language, as an aid to company planning.
Global growth will be lower in 2013 than it was in 2012. Emerging markets will be troubled by several years of interest rate increases led by the gradual normalization of US monetary policy. This means rising costs of their debt service and lower momentum for big infrastructure works. Mexico did not start on time its infrastructure projects and now faces a more difficult and costly market for funding the long-awaited public works. The delay in implementing this and other measures to spur investment and growth in Mexico by the new government has buried now the notion of the "Mexican moment". We now expect only 0.5% GDP growth in 2013 and 2.7% in 2014, the latter only on the premise that the government will accelerate public spending. The outlook for growth in Mexico is now much lower and inferior in quality than we thought likely (because it was possible) at the start of the year.